Game Preview: USC vs. UCLA – January 20-21

Not an enviable position for USC to be in.

In the second to last weekend of games that count for PAC 8 Conference Standings, the Trojans (8-10-1, 4-5-1 PAC 8) find themselves in the precarious situation of having to face their crosstown rivals not only to keep their playoff chances alive, but also to maintain possession of the Crosstown Cup.

UCLA (9-6-0, 8-2-0) has a 2-games-to-none lead on USC in the best-of-5 season series. Both of the previous meetings between the teams came down to the wire, with the first game going to a shootout, and the second won by the Bruins in the last :26 of regulation time.

The Trojans look to turn the tide this weekend; Game 3 is on Friday, January 20 at The Rinks – Anaheim ICE, with Game 4 the following day at Valley Ice in Panorama City. A sweep of the Bruins would force the Crosstown Cup winner to be decided in Game 5, to be held at the Trojans’ home rink in Anaheim on February 4.

Two wins this weekend would also solidify USC’s hold on the 4th and final PAC 8 playoff spot, with Oregon (9-7-0, 4-5-0) just behind in the standings in the 5^th spot and facing top-ranked Washington for two games this same weekend.

This weekend's results then set up the final showdown for 4th, as Oregon travels down to Southern California to face USC January 27-28.

UCLA has already clinched their invitation to the PAC 8s as the 3^rd place team, as have 2^nd-place Utah (22-6-0, 7-2-0) and Washington (12-6-1, 10-0-0), who is hosting this year’s playoffs near Seattle.

The PAC 8 uses a complicated but proven weighted-point system based on records of opponents, so knowing playoff scenarios requires more than a simple glance at team records and upcoming schedule.

Under the system, USC has a slight advantage over the Ducks, but could still use some help from the Huskies. Because of Washington’s high value as the top team, a sweep by the Ducks would turn the fortunes and place USC in the hole playoff-wise.

Below is a table of possible playoff scenarios and outcomes for USC and Oregon.

For the Trojans, it’s all too simple: sweep both UCLA and Oregon, and there’s nothing to worry about.

		USC/ucla results
		USC sweeps ucla	USC splits with ucla	USC loses both to ucla
UO/UW results	UO sweeps UW	USC must sweep UO	UO goes to PAC 8s	UO goes to PAC 8s
	UO splits with UW	UO must sweep USC	UO must sweep USC	USC must sweep UO
	UO loses both to UW	UO must sweep USC	UO must sweep USC	UO must sweep USC